Cathode material prices rebound, China Nickel ternary "takes momentum"

Original Senior Engineer Observation High-tech lithium battery 2024-03-10 19:39 Guangdong

23 days to the meeting

2024 High-tech Sodium Electricity Industry Summit

——Global Vision Sodium Electricity Sets Sail

Sponsor: Advanced Industrial Research (GGII) Advanced Energy Storage Advanced Lithium Battery

Overall title: ZhongNa Energy

Summit time: April 2, 2024

Summit location: Suzhou

Entering the new year, the lithium battery industry chain is undergoing rapid changes.

Since March, affected by the short-term fluctuation of the spot price of lithium carbonate to a range of more than 100,000 yuan, the price of cathode materials has recovered due to cost support.

As of last week, in the lithium battery cathode segment, the prices of iron lithium and ternary materials have increased, and output and operating rates have also rebounded.

Gaogong Lithium Battery’s observation found that from a combined upstream and downstream perspective, the price of cathode materials has not increased as much as the upstream lithium raw materials; within the cathode materials, the data performance of the 8-series ternary materials at both ends of the supply (output) and demand (price) is not as good as that of the 5-series ternary materials. , medium and low nickel ternary represented by 6 series materials.

The reason is that in domestic and overseas markets, high-nickel ternary vehicle loading is being squeezed by high-voltage medium-nickel ternary and iron-lithium cathodes, and uncertainty is increasing.

Medium nickel is in demand, but high nickel is in the cold

Judging from weekly data, as of March 1, the prices of ternary and iron-lithium materials have rebounded by 200-2,500 yuan. Among them, the prices of 5 series and 6 series ternary materials have rebounded most significantly, reaching 2,500 yuan and 1,000 yuan respectively. yuan; the price of iron-lithium materials increased by about 500 yuan, while the quotation of 8 series ternary materials remained unchanged.

During the same period, the quotations of ternary and lithium iron power batteries were close to 0.45 yuan/Wh and 0.35 yuan/Wh respectively, which was the same as last week. The prices of upstream raw materials battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium hydroxide have increased by more than 5,000 yuan.

The price of battery cells remains stable, while the rebound in lithium salt prices is more intense than that of cathode materials. It can be seen that the rise in upstream lithium prices has not been transmitted to downstream battery cells in time. For the midstream material end, it means that the selling price remains unchanged. As costs rise, profits are squeezed.

Specific to cathode materials, the price increase of ternary materials is greater than that of iron-lithium materials, reflecting the recovery of demand for ternary materials.

Under the certification standards for domestically sold models, the proportion of ternary batteries has gradually recovered. January 2024. The proportion of ternary batteries installed in vehicles increased to nearly 40%, while the proportion of iron-lithium batteries installed in vehicles fell by 6 percentage points to about 60%. The "37-point" pattern of ternary and iron-lithium is changing to "46-point".

Within ternary materials, the price increase of medium and low nickel ternary materials has led the rise in price of high nickel ternary materials. Signs of the market share of high nickel ternary materials being squeezed are emerging.

Judging from year-on-year data that better reflects structural trends, the decline in high-nickel ternary output has been more obvious.

In February 2024, the output of ternary materials 811 fell by about 7% year-on-year; while the output of ternary materials 622 showed a year-on-year increase, with an increase of more than 40%.

Structurally, the proportion of 8-series ternary materials in total output has dropped to less than 40%, while the highest in the past year has risen to over 45%; the proportion of 6-series ternary materials has continued to approach 30%.

In addition, as a raw material for high-nickel ternary cathodes, price changes of lithium hydroxide can also reflect changes in demand for high-nickel ternary cathodes to a certain extent.

Under the current mismatch pattern of oversupply, pricing power is transferred downstream, and the price of lithium hydroxide is mainly affected by the high nickel ternary price of its downstream products. Since the power battery supporting pattern has been dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries, the prices of battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate have been inverted. Since February this year, the price difference between the two parties has widened, reflecting the further "cold" demand for lithium hydroxide and high-nickel ternary prices.

6 series ternary grabs fast charging battery

Fundamentally, on the supply side, the decline in the output of high-nickel ternary materials is mainly due to supply-side disturbances in Indonesia, the price of nickel, the main raw material, has rebounded, the production costs of high-nickel ternary materials have increased, and the overall cost performance has declined.

Recently, Indonesia's mining quota approval progress has been slower than expected, and many overseas nickel companies have announced plans to reduce and suspend production. The supply of nickel in the market has shown signs of contraction, and nickel prices have rebounded significantly after stopping falling in the past three months.

Changes on the demand side are more dominant. Previously, the market judged that the certainty of domestic high-nickel ternary materials penetrating downstream will come from power batteries with higher performance such as fast-charging batteries, 4680 large cylindrical batteries and solid-state batteries.

In fact, the demand for high-nickel ternary batteries from large cylindrical batteries and solid-state batteries has not yet materialized. The former is stuck at the key point of improving production efficiency and reducing material costs, while the latter is at a stage where semi-solid batteries have not been launched in batches, and all-solid batteries require new cathodes. The "awkward period" of the material.

As a category with relatively strong demand, fast-charging batteries are currently mostly using medium-nickel ternary as the cathode material, and are combined with high-voltage systems to improve energy density and cruising range.

According to incomplete statistics, although they are designed to be compatible with medium and high nickel ternary cathodes, fast-charging battery products including CATL's Kirin batteries and Sunwanda flash-charging batteries that have been installed in major models in batches are actually more The medium nickel ternary cathode is used. Judging from the above production data, the changes in the proportion of high-nickel ternary production are indeed mainly squeezed by the 6-series medium nickel ternary rather than the 9-series ultra-high nickel.

There are two reasons behind this. At the theoretical level, studies have shown that the lithium ion diffusion coefficient among 6-series ternary materials is relatively highest, which is more conducive to fast charging performance; at the same time, increasing the charging voltage of Ni65 from 4.25V to 4.40V can achieve a 10% increase in energy density. The overall performance is basically the same as that of typical Ni8 series products with a charging voltage of 4.20V.

At the industrialization level, some people from the cathode material company told Gaogong Lithium Battery that the medium and high nickel ternary materials it can provide can meet customers' current needs for fast-charging batteries, but customers still have to choose medium-nickel ternary materials in the end. For cost considerations. This statement has been cross-confirmed by people from independent brand car companies. They said that although high-end models will not trade price wars for volume, gross profit margins are still the ultimate sword, and they need to pursue a balance between fast charging rate, energy density and material costs. .

Some market agencies estimate that the difference in material cost per ton between Ni6 series high-voltage products and Ni8 series products is close to 17%; the difference in kilowatt-hour material cost is also about 16%.

In the short term, in addition to medium-nickel ternary batteries, represented by Honeycomb Energy's dagger batteries, iron lithiumization of fast-charge batteries is also becoming a new trend, which will continue to have an impact on high-nickel ternary batteries in the fast-charge battery market.

Other market observers pointed out that with the rise of domestic extended range routes and battery swap modes, high-end models can use medium-nickel ternary (ideal) or even iron-lithium cathodes (such as BYD's Look Up). Heavy trucks can choose iron-lithium in battery swap mode. As for the cathode, the domestic market demand for high-nickel ternary products still needs to be tapped.

People from the above-mentioned cathode material companies also pointed out that in 2024, with the reduction of new energy vehicle subsidies in Europe and the United States and the counterattack in demand for fuel vehicles, the share of high-nickel ternary in the overseas market may follow the domestic situation, and will be affected by the decline in demand from medium-nickel ternary and iron-lithium cathodes. Material Challenges.

Against the background of "cost reduction" in the lithium battery industry, some ternary cathode companies have begun to increase their efforts in the layout of medium-nickel and high-voltage ternary products.

In February this year, Rongbai Technology and LGES signed a joint research and development agreement. The focus of cooperation between the two parties in the short term will be around LMFP and medium-nickel high-voltage materials, and the research and development cooperation on high-nickel ternary will be promoted in the "follow-up".

Xiamen Tungsten New Energy also stated that the company's ternary material products will be mainly high-voltage series products, mainly selling Ni5 series, promoting new products Ni6 series on a large scale, and developing Ni7 series.